Greedy Bayesian Posterior Approximation with Deep Ensembles

Ensembles of independently trained neural networks are a state-of-the-art approach to estimate predictive uncertainty in Deep Learning, and can be interpreted as an approximation of the posterior distribution via a mixture of delta functions. The training of ensembles relies on non-convexity of the loss landscape and random initialization of their individual members, making the resulting posterior approximation uncontrolled. This paper proposes a novel and principled method to tackle this limitation, minimizing an $f$-divergence between the true posterior and a kernel density estimator in a function space. We analyze this objective from a combinatorial point of view, and show that it is submodular with respect to mixture components for any $f$. Subsequently, we consider the problem of ensemble construction, and from the marginal gain of the total objective, we derive a novel diversity term for training ensembles greedily. The performance of our approach is demonstrated on computer vision out-of-distribution detection benchmarks in a range of architectures trained on multiple datasets. The source code of our method is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/greedy_ensembles_training

Adaptive Segmentation of Knee Radiographs for Selecting the Optimal ROI in Texture Analysis

The purposes of this study were to investigate: 1) the effect of placement of region-of-interest (ROI) for texture analysis of subchondral bone in knee radiographs, and 2) the ability of several texture descriptors to distinguish between the knees with and without radiographic osteoarthritis (OA). Bilateral posterior-anterior knee radiographs were analyzed from the baseline of OAI and MOST datasets. A fully automatic method to locate the most informative region from subchondral bone using adaptive segmentation was developed. We used an oversegmentation strategy for partitioning knee images into the compact regions that follow natural texture boundaries. LBP, Fractal Dimension (FD), Haralick features, Shannon entropy, and HOG methods were computed within the standard ROI and within the proposed adaptive ROIs. Subsequently, we built logistic regression models to identify and compare the performances of each texture descriptor and each ROI placement method using 5-fold cross validation setting. Importantly, we also investigated the generalizability of our approach by training the models on OAI and testing them on MOST dataset.We used area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and average precision (AP) obtained from the precision-recall (PR) curve to compare the results. We found that the adaptive ROI improves the classification performance (OA vs. non-OA) over the commonly used standard ROI (up to 9% percent increase in AUC). We also observed that, from all texture parameters, LBP yielded the best performance in all settings with the best AUC of 0.840 [0.825, 0.852] and associated AP of 0.804 [0.786, 0.820]. Compared to the current state-of-the-art approaches, our results suggest that the proposed adaptive ROI approach in texture analysis of subchondral bone can increase the diagnostic performance for detecting the presence of radiographic OA

Multimodal Machine Learning-based Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Prediction from Plain Radiographs and Clinical Data

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease without a cure, and current treatment options are limited to symptomatic relief. Prediction of OA progression is a very challenging and timely issue, and it could, if resolved, accelerate the disease modifying drug development and ultimately help to prevent millions of total joint replacement surgeries performed annually. Here, we present a multi-modal machine learning-based OA progression prediction model that utilizes raw radiographic data, clinical examination results and previous medical history of the patient. We validated this approach on an independent test set of 3,918 knee images from 2,129 subjects. Our method yielded area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.79 (0.78-0.81) and Average Precision (AP) of 0.68 (0.66-0.70). In contrast, a reference approach, based on logistic regression, yielded AUC of 0.75 (0.74-0.77) and AP of 0.62 (0.60-0.64). The proposed method could significantly improve the subject selection process for OA drug-development trials and help the development of personalized therapeutic plans

Understanding metric-related pitfalls in image analysis validation

Validation metrics are key for the reliable tracking of scientific progress and for bridging the current chasm between artificial intelligence (AI) research and its translation into practice. However, increasing evidence shows that particularly in image analysis, metrics are often chosen inadequately in relation to the underlying research problem. This could be attributed to a lack of accessibility of metric-related knowledge: While taking into account the individual strengths, weaknesses, and limitations of validation metrics is a critical prerequisite to making educated choices, the relevant knowledge is currently scattered and poorly accessible to individual researchers. Based on a multi-stage Delphi process conducted by a multidisciplinary expert consortium as well as extensive community feedback, the present work provides the first reliable and comprehensive common point of access to information on pitfalls related to validation metrics in image analysis. Focusing on biomedical image analysis but with the potential of transfer to other fields, the addressed pitfalls generalize across application domains and are categorized according to a newly created, domain-agnostic taxonomy. To facilitate comprehension, illustrations and specific examples accompany each pitfall. As a structured body of information accessible to researchers of all levels of expertise, this work enhances global comprehension of a key topic in image analysis validation.Comment: Shared first authors: Annika Reinke, Minu D. Tizabi; shared senior authors: Paul F. J\"ager, Lena Maier-Hei